Thursday, November 27, 2008

Devaluatie & Revaluatie

Dit gaat echt gebeuren, namelijk: een devaluatie van alle papiermunten en een revaluatie van het goud en zilver.

Bij devaluatie wordt iets minder waard, bij revaluatie wordt iets méér waard.

Ik kom hier later op terug maar het wordt op schitterende wijze uitgelegd in volgend stuk. Ikzelf heb belangrijk zaken in het vet geplaatst en in groter lettertype.

Uitgelegd door James Puplava:

A depression is a deleveraging process created and brought about by too much debt. And the problem, if you take a look at the G-20 that are getting together this weekend in Washington, is all debts are rising around the world. And it's not just debt problems that are going bad here in the United States. They've got debt problems in Europe, they've got debt problems in Asia, they've got debt problems in Latin America, so the best way to get rid of debt is devaluation.

Now, if we take a look at how Roosevelt came in and fought the Depression, he did four things.
One, he created a bank holiday and came back with government guarantees. We already did that. We just raised almost the equivalent of FDIC from 100,000 to 250,000.

Two, he severed the dollar from gold. In a way we're doing that indirectly by slamming the price but not making the production of it available, and so you've almost had a severing of the two purposes of money: a store of value and as used in transactions. So people still need fiat currencies for transactions, but gold and silver are fulfilling their monetary role as a store of value.
Three, massive money printing. Oh, my goodness, have we seen that! We talked about in an earlier part of the program that the Fed's balance sheet just increased by another 200 billion dollars. So the Fed's balance sheet is 2.2 trillion and it's estimated it will be 3 trillion by the end of the year.
The fourth thing, and this is very effective in getting rid of debt, is devaluation. And that was something that Roosevelt did in 1933 with Executive Order 6102 where he not only confiscated gold, but he raised the price of gold by 69.3 percent, effectively kick starting asset reflation and it worked. You can take a look at charts of the economy, the CRB, and it worked for about four years until he raised tax rates to 80 percent – another dumb move. Only this time it won't be just the US because remember other countries are in the same boat. The world is too interconnected today, so instead of the world's leading countries, I think could propose simultaneously universal currency devaluation. And in that case, what would happen is gold would be revalued overnight and currencies would be devalued overnight. So there are two ways that they are either going to do this and dollar devaluation is coming, folks. That's step 4.

We've seen three out of the four and up until this point, we still have some problems. They are not getting enough. There is still too much debt out there, so you've got to make that debt worth less and one of the best ways to do it effectively and almost do it very quickly is devaluation of the currency.

And who knows? We could wake up one day and it could be decided on a weekend before the markets even open that the dollar is devalued and all currencies are devalued and then what we would do is go to some kind of new sort of semi-fixed rate system and eventually, they would like to have a global currency, but I think you're going to do it in stages. You're going to have almost three or four currency units. You already have the euro and I think what is coming to North America is the Amigo, and then of course you get the miso, and then eventually you would have these three currency units and you would get the globo. Who knows what they'll call it, but you're going to have to do it and you're going to have to revalue gold in the process. And I've seen estimates in terms of what it would mean for the price of gold, anywhere from 5000 dollars an ounce all of the way to over $10,000 an ounce, but you're going to see a devaluation coming as we’ve mentioned. We've already seen three of these four steps take place and when it happens, it's going to be like a thief in the night. It will be very quickly and the currency markets will begin to sense this before the formal declaration.

But right now, John, it is in nobody's interest to see the dollar collapse, but the US needs to get its currency down. (...)

You make debt worth a lot less and it can be done very effectively. Now, they are going to have to sell this to people, but it is coming. And I don't know if it comes in stages, if it comes gradually, but this is what is coming next and it's going to be the ultimate way of fighting any deflationary effects that would come from contracting debt. Right now they are printing the money faster than debt is contracting and it's still keeping prices up on things you still need.

I'm always amazed, John, and I don't know if you've seen this how the packages are getting smaller in the store. I've even seen with canned soft drinks now they have half sizes that are very expensive. The packages for cheese are getting smaller, the dog food bags are getting smaller, the cereal is getting smaller, so you're already seeing this take place right now. But the next factor that's going to hit the market and this is the one I think most people are going to get caught unaware of is going to be devaluation of the currency. And it's just a question of what this Bretton Woods II as they converge and they are looking at maybe an international accounting system, they are looking at international leverage standards, a whole bunch of things that they are going to be looking to come out of this, but the one thing that the Europeans have, you have a central bank that really is just devoted to the euro currency. It really can't affect national outcomes and if you look at even the euro, the yard sticks that they set (budget deficits must be 3 percent and less of GDP, inflation rates have to be under a certain level), just about every country has exceeded those limits. So those bands are becoming a joke, but when it comes down to economic problems, you know, the individual countries, the power to do things economically is still back at the individual level and not in Brussels or the ECB because they have very limited power. So they still want a global system tied to the dollar because the euro can't replace it, the yuan can't replace it and the yen can't replace it. But it's going to have to be a devalued dollar, and if they devalue the dollar, they are also going to devalue other currencies as well because it's in their best interest to do so.

JOHN: Let's ask the obvious question that people typically do in this case. When we do a devaluation, how does that affect what's going on inside of our currency. How will we feel it? In prices or anything? Or virtually no change within inside of the closed economy here?

JIM: Well, one thing, you would get immediate asset revaluation. You would make assets worth more immediately. The things that we import in this country would also go up immediately too, so you would see it in higher costs. But one way to stop this asset deflation is devaluation, because that's exactly what happened in Germany, what's happened in Argentina and immediately assets get revalued in nominal term to make up for the lower purchasing power of the currency unit, so it would be one way to stop the depreciation on real estate and especially if it continues over the next 12 months.

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